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Investment volumes in the retail sector in the third quarter of 2016 totalled 827 million Euro, showing strong growth compared to the previous quarter and the same period of last year.
For the first time since 2014, the share of domestic capital invested (44%) represented almost half of the total for the quarter.
With around one billion in the pipeline, investment activity is solid. The total at year end could be around 2-2.5 billion Euro.
Development activity is still buoyant with around 300,000 square metres expected to be completed in Q4 and a further 230,000 square metres under construction with completion expected between 2017 and 2018.
The economic outlook for year end is still uncertain: the constitutional referendum which will be held in December and the problem of the banking system are the major threats that affect the recovery.
In Q2 2016 the retail investment volume totals € 175 million, below levels for the previous quarter, as a result of long negotiating times.
The trend in investments continues to grow with respect to the first half of last year. With € 700 million invested in H1 2016, this is an increase of about 20% on the same period of the previous year.
The pipeline of deals under negotiation remains strong, with at least € 2 billion on the market. The outlook is uncertain, however, as a result of a general deterioration in investor sentiment in late June.
The sales trend observed in the CBRE sample of galleries in May sees the first significant slowdown after more than 24 months of continuous growth, as a result of a combination of adverse weather conditions and a slight deterioration in consumer confidence.
However, half-yearly sales data are positive and growth stands at between 1 and 2% on the same period of the previous year.
Development activity continues to improve with a significant completion during the quarter. The New stock estimate for 2016 still stands at 387,000 sq m of GLA, mainly comprising shopping centres.
The improvement in the retail investments volume continues in Q1, up 13% on the previous quarter and more than three times the volume for the same period the previous year.
Consumer confidence in March grew slightly compared with the previous month, remaining at levels which were higher than in 2011.
Development activity is improving and, although no significant completions were recorded in the first quarter of 2016, during the year estimates of new projects now under construction stand at approximately 331,000 sqm GLA.
Retailer demand continues to be strong and 2016 will be characterised by a significant number of new entries into the Italian market. New supply is creating spaces for new retailers to enter the market.
Rents grow for high street and prime shopping centre premises.
Almost 1.8 billion Euro were invested in Q1 2016, a decline of 6.7% on the same quarter of the previous year.
Quarterly volume confirms 36% more than the quarterly average for the past four years.
At approximately 1.3 bn Euro, foreign capital is still the major driver of Italian CRE investment volume in Q1 16.
European investors lead the quarterly foreign capital (51%), with German on the top of the list.
The office sector, with 46% of total quarterly volume, is still the investors’ preferred asset class while retail follows whit 32%, thus improving its market share compared to previous quarters; the mixed use properties sector (mainly non-core investments to be re-positioned) fell at 6% .
The beginning of 2016 has been marked by an increased cautiousness among investors compared to the end of 2015 but the interest in the Italian real estate is confirmed sound.