Whether our clients are acquiring, selling, managing or investing in property, good decisions depend on accurate, carefully analysed information. Our team makes a close study of real estate globally, delving into specific sectors and markets as well as exploring broader real estate trends. We report back to our clients via publications, reports and presentations.
Why do they choose to work with us?
The research team has access to data, market intelligence and human expertise from a worldwide network of CBRE offices. The EMEA research team alone numbers 106 people in 43 EMEA countries and incorporates a specialist cross-border research team. The findings we report to our clients have a depth - and a value - that other firm’s researchers cannot match. It’s how we give our clients a competitive edge.
Which specialist services do we offer?
Regular local market analysis and reports
Analysis and reporting of regional and global trends
The CEE Market Outlook 2016 analyses the results of 2015 in regards to investment, office, retail and industrial for Central and Eastern European countries and presents the forecast for 2016.
- Economic growth is the norm for almost all CEE countries, at a speed above that of Western Europe countries.
- The dominant cyclical factor is consumer spending, which is currently benefiting from a host of positive factors.
- Investment Volumes in CEE should be at minimum similar to those from 2015 (EUR 9.978 billion, except Russia).
- Historical high office demand is registered in almost all CEE countries, driven mostly by IT & outsourcing international occupiers.
- Buyont retail market, on the back of rise in private consumption, leading to tenants turnover increases and interest from investors in retail products.
- Even if industrial demand is reaching historically high numbers (in some cases up 65% compared to 10 year averages), there is limited speculative development.
- Hungary is a country that has grown under the radar for the past 12 – 18 months. With a number of indicators looking very promising – well past the region average –, we make a case for Hungary as the go-to-destination in 2016.
Spain's economic growth forecasts in 2016 continue to be among the highest in the Eurozone, between 2.7% and 2.8%
The extremely high activity in the investment market over the past two years, will be more toned down in 2016, but it will still be a busy year (€8.5-€9.5bn).
After several years of weak office take-up, 2015 recorded the highest figure since 2007.
The outlook for the retail sector in 2016 is positive, thanks to strong levels of consumption. At the same time, the number of tourists that visit Spain also continues to break records and this without a doubt has helped to drive the sector
The logistics sector continues to grow, with Barcelona registering record high take-up in 2015.
According to CBRE forecasts, housing prices will grow by circa 6% in 2016, with the Autonomous Communities of Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and the Balearic Islands ahead of the rest.
Spain is the 3rd most visited country in the world and its hotel sector is going through a golden age, with visitor numbers breaking records year after year.
Our latest annual debt review provides comprehensive analysis of 2015’s trends and considers how and why 2016 may be different.
Our key conclusions are:
Last year, new lending doubled, rising to €127 billion based on a record €273 billion of CRE investment.
Lending margins were generally stable for bilateral lending and LTV levels stayed low, by historic standards.
Despite the rise in new debt issuance, the total value of European CRE debt in 2015 was only slightly higher than in the previous year, at €1.1 trillion, because new lending was offset by the retirement of existing debt.
NPL activity was robust. Sales were up 23% in 2015 to €85 billion.
Dry powder for loans and distressed assets is high and pressure is rising on European banks which have yet to address long-standing, non-core loan books, meaning the pace of deleveraging will continue.
Investors have become more cautious. This change in sentiment is a factor in a slowdown in 2016 investment activity and is likely to affect loan pricing.
All Spanish economic indicators registered positive figures in 2015 and were a strong driving force for business. GDP and private consumption grew above 3%, the unemployment rate dropped to 22% and consumer confidence hit all-time highs.
Thanks to the new economic backdrop and rising sales figures, many brands have resumed their expansion plans.
Spain is one of the European countries where e-commerce is growing the most.
The rising interest from retailers to open flagship stores is causing some streets to be completely revamped.
In 2015, shopping centres booked improved results, with sales for the centres in the CBRE Index growing by 5.5% on average, almost double the figure registered by retailers in general. The
spend-per-head also rose considerably from €10.50 to €11.70 per visitor.
Retail investment in 2015 hit record highs, both in the high-street and shopping centre sectors, with investors showing an appetite for all types of retail products throughout the year.
To remain competitive, shopping centres must continually move with the times and incorporate
new management strategies.
Despite continuing globalization of the real estate industry and stronger cross-border interplay between the real estate and capital markets, the national markets are still dominated by national and regional characteristics
The rental market is gaining considerably in importance over ownership, due to affordability factors, as well as the more flexible lifestyle it offers, in particular for younger people
Both the importance of institutional investors and the size of the private letting market, in comparison with the state-controlled segment, vary considerably between countries and have strong influence on the availability of adequate numbers of housing units.
Owner - Occupation varies between 78 percent in Spain and 34.6 percent in Switzerland
Capital Advisors Four Quadrants Report | August 2016 Edition
The Four Quadrants report provides a holistic analysis of the ‘Four Quadrants’ of institutional real estate capital – private equity, public equity, private debt and public debt.
The Four Quadrants Highlights
• High stock market volatility persisted throughout Q2 2016 following a difficult start in Q1
• The Brexit vote has led to more pronounced performance divergence which was already an established trend in 2016
• The immediate Brexit effect was an anticipated flight to safety, where London specialists registered the largest falls, as opposed to German residential REITs which have gained c.20% year to date
• Funds targeting Europe raised a healthy €15.8bn in H1 2016, consistent with the same period in 2014 and 2015, indicating significant dry powder
• Secondary market activity registered good volumes. Pricing has come in and units in UK funds have moved into discount NAV territory
• Brexit triggered a significant increase in redemption requests in UK funds with daily liquidity targeting retail clients. Suspensions and upcoming ongoing asset sales are watched for early re-pricing indicators
• Corporate credit spreads showed resilience with very limited widening in response to the Brexit result.
• UK CMBS were trading 50-60bps wider at the end of July in comparison with pre-Brexit levels indicating higher pricing for real estate debt.
• No new CMBS issuance during Q2 due to limited traction of this financing route with sponsors or investors.
• Lenders in the UK are showing a continued appetite for new business post-Brexit, although they have indicated a more prudent approach when considering new transactions.
• We have started to see an increase in the margins quoted on new transactions, although this has been largely offset by the decrease in the 5 year swap rate.
• Leverage for senior loans is expected to come in from 60-65% LTV to around 55% LTV.