Whether our clients are acquiring, selling, managing or investing in property, good decisions depend on accurate, carefully analysed information. Our team makes a close study of real estate globally, delving into specific sectors and markets as well as exploring broader real estate trends. We report back to our clients via publications, reports and presentations.
Why do they choose to work with us?
The research team has access to data, market intelligence and human expertise from a worldwide network of CBRE offices. The EMEA research team alone numbers 106 people in 43 EMEA countries and incorporates a specialist cross-border research team. The findings we report to our clients have a depth - and a value - that other firm’s researchers cannot match. It’s how we give our clients a competitive edge.
Which specialist services do we offer?
Regular local market analysis and reports
Analysis and reporting of regional and global trends
The CEE Market Outlook 2016 analyses the results of 2015 in regards to investment, office, retail and industrial for Central and Eastern European countries and presents the forecast for 2016.
- Economic growth is the norm for almost all CEE countries, at a speed above that of Western Europe countries.
- The dominant cyclical factor is consumer spending, which is currently benefiting from a host of positive factors.
- Investment Volumes in CEE should be at minimum similar to those from 2015 (EUR 9.978 billion, except Russia).
- Historical high office demand is registered in almost all CEE countries, driven mostly by IT & outsourcing international occupiers.
- Buyont retail market, on the back of rise in private consumption, leading to tenants turnover increases and interest from investors in retail products.
- Even if industrial demand is reaching historically high numbers (in some cases up 65% compared to 10 year averages), there is limited speculative development.
- Hungary is a country that has grown under the radar for the past 12 – 18 months. With a number of indicators looking very promising – well past the region average –, we make a case for Hungary as the go-to-destination in 2016.
Spain's economic growth forecasts in 2016 continue to be among the highest in the Eurozone, between 2.7% and 2.8%
The extremely high activity in the investment market over the past two years, will be more toned down in 2016, but it will still be a busy year (€8.5-€9.5bn).
After several years of weak office take-up, 2015 recorded the highest figure since 2007.
The outlook for the retail sector in 2016 is positive, thanks to strong levels of consumption. At the same time, the number of tourists that visit Spain also continues to break records and this without a doubt has helped to drive the sector
The logistics sector continues to grow, with Barcelona registering record high take-up in 2015.
According to CBRE forecasts, housing prices will grow by circa 6% in 2016, with the Autonomous Communities of Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and the Balearic Islands ahead of the rest.
Spain is the 3rd most visited country in the world and its hotel sector is going through a golden age, with visitor numbers breaking records year after year.
Our latest annual debt review provides comprehensive analysis of 2015’s trends and considers how and why 2016 may be different.
Our key conclusions are:
Last year, new lending doubled, rising to €127 billion based on a record €273 billion of CRE investment.
Lending margins were generally stable for bilateral lending and LTV levels stayed low, by historic standards.
Despite the rise in new debt issuance, the total value of European CRE debt in 2015 was only slightly higher than in the previous year, at €1.1 trillion, because new lending was offset by the retirement of existing debt.
NPL activity was robust. Sales were up 23% in 2015 to €85 billion.
Dry powder for loans and distressed assets is high and pressure is rising on European banks which have yet to address long-standing, non-core loan books, meaning the pace of deleveraging will continue.
Investors have become more cautious. This change in sentiment is a factor in a slowdown in 2016 investment activity and is likely to affect loan pricing.
Since we produced our first report on the EU referendum in February, the bookmakers’ odds against a leave first drifted out from 9/4 (31%) to 9/2 (18.2%) but they have now firmed as the leave campaign has gained momentum and some bookmakers are now quoting 2/1 (33.3%).
The opinion polls are still neck and neck and the Stay campaign has serious concerns that the pro-stay majority in the younger age groups are far less likely to vote that the pro-leave older age groups.
With only a few exceptions, economic impact studies are continuing to warn of the detrimental impact of a Leave vote.
From a property standpoint, the sectors most at risk if there is a Leave vote and if it has a negative economic impact are financial services, legal and accountancy and the tech sector.
London is most at risk with Frankfurt and Paris and, to a lesser extent, Amsterdam and Dublin poised to gain from any financial service fall out and Berlin, Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam and Stockholm looking best placed to gain if the UK’s tech-sector takes a hit.
Almost as many of our clients expect a lose-lose outcome as do a lose-win scenario. This is because of worries that without the UK, the EU could be subject to further fragmentation, a more anti-competitive policy agenda or even another euro-crisis.
The Referendum outcome leaves Britain unsure of what it has done and the world unsure of the wider implications. The complex task of unwinding and resetting the UK’s relationship with the EU is likely to take many years and dominate UK and, possibly, EU politics for the foreseeable future. There are implications for the whole of the EU not just the UK and these could be both positive and negative.
•The level of foreign investments has increased more than twelve times in relation to the foreign investment level in 2009 which was around EUR 1 billion 1.
•U.K. and North America have the highest growth rates of cross-border investors.
•Investors from within the Nordic Region historically dominate the Nordic investment market.
•Foreign investment flows are negatively and more significantly correlated with yield movements than domestic investment flows.
Due to its impact and distinctive features, the increase in cross-border investments has experienced an increased interest. As a result, cross-border investments (i.e., foreign investments), has become an interesting topic in the academic commercial real estate literature
How did the surge in foreign investments affect Nordic yields in recent years?