Whether our clients are acquiring, selling, managing or investing in property, good decisions depend on accurate, carefully analysed information. Our team makes a close study of real estate globally, delving into specific sectors and markets as well as exploring broader real estate trends. We report back to our clients via publications, reports and presentations.
Why do they choose to work with us?
The research team has access to data, market intelligence and human expertise from a worldwide network of CBRE offices. The EMEA research team alone numbers 106 people in 43 EMEA countries and incorporates a specialist cross-border research team. The findings we report to our clients have a depth - and a value - that other firm’s researchers cannot match. It’s how we give our clients a competitive edge.
Which specialist services do we offer?
Regular local market analysis and reports
Analysis and reporting of regional and global trends
The CEE Market Outlook 2016 analyses the results of 2015 in regards to investment, office, retail and industrial for Central and Eastern European countries and presents the forecast for 2016.
- Economic growth is the norm for almost all CEE countries, at a speed above that of Western Europe countries.
- The dominant cyclical factor is consumer spending, which is currently benefiting from a host of positive factors.
- Investment Volumes in CEE should be at minimum similar to those from 2015 (EUR 9.978 billion, except Russia).
- Historical high office demand is registered in almost all CEE countries, driven mostly by IT & outsourcing international occupiers.
- Buyont retail market, on the back of rise in private consumption, leading to tenants turnover increases and interest from investors in retail products.
- Even if industrial demand is reaching historically high numbers (in some cases up 65% compared to 10 year averages), there is limited speculative development.
- Hungary is a country that has grown under the radar for the past 12 – 18 months. With a number of indicators looking very promising – well past the region average –, we make a case for Hungary as the go-to-destination in 2016.
Spain's economic growth forecasts in 2016 continue to be among the highest in the Eurozone, between 2.7% and 2.8%
The extremely high activity in the investment market over the past two years, will be more toned down in 2016, but it will still be a busy year (€8.5-€9.5bn).
After several years of weak office take-up, 2015 recorded the highest figure since 2007.
The outlook for the retail sector in 2016 is positive, thanks to strong levels of consumption. At the same time, the number of tourists that visit Spain also continues to break records and this without a doubt has helped to drive the sector
The logistics sector continues to grow, with Barcelona registering record high take-up in 2015.
According to CBRE forecasts, housing prices will grow by circa 6% in 2016, with the Autonomous Communities of Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and the Balearic Islands ahead of the rest.
Spain is the 3rd most visited country in the world and its hotel sector is going through a golden age, with visitor numbers breaking records year after year.
Our latest annual debt review provides comprehensive analysis of 2015’s trends and considers how and why 2016 may be different.
Our key conclusions are:
Last year, new lending doubled, rising to €127 billion based on a record €273 billion of CRE investment.
Lending margins were generally stable for bilateral lending and LTV levels stayed low, by historic standards.
Despite the rise in new debt issuance, the total value of European CRE debt in 2015 was only slightly higher than in the previous year, at €1.1 trillion, because new lending was offset by the retirement of existing debt.
NPL activity was robust. Sales were up 23% in 2015 to €85 billion.
Dry powder for loans and distressed assets is high and pressure is rising on European banks which have yet to address long-standing, non-core loan books, meaning the pace of deleveraging will continue.
Investors have become more cautious. This change in sentiment is a factor in a slowdown in 2016 investment activity and is likely to affect loan pricing.
All Spanish economic indicators registered positive figures in 2015 and were a strong driving force for business. GDP and private consumption grew above 3%, the unemployment rate dropped to 22% and consumer confidence hit all-time highs.
Thanks to the new economic backdrop and rising sales figures, many brands have resumed their expansion plans.
Spain is one of the European countries where e-commerce is growing the most.
The rising interest from retailers to open flagship stores is causing some streets to be completely revamped.
In 2015, shopping centres booked improved results, with sales for the centres in the CBRE Index growing by 5.5% on average, almost double the figure registered by retailers in general. The
spend-per-head also rose considerably from €10.50 to €11.70 per visitor.
Retail investment in 2015 hit record highs, both in the high-street and shopping centre sectors, with investors showing an appetite for all types of retail products throughout the year.
To remain competitive, shopping centres must continually move with the times and incorporate
new management strategies.
This year’s guide is the largest and most comprehensive yet with 64 EMEA cities featured including certain global hubs such as Hong Kong, New York City and Mexico City. Throughout the guide we demonstrate how traditional office settings compare to the more wide spread application of agile working environments.
This ViewPoint looks at what might happen now that the UK has voted to leave the EU. It discusses the likely timetable for Brexit, the possible impact on the UK economy and what alternative trade structures might be available for the UK to join.
This report goes into further detail on which UK industry sectors might be affected and which European cities might benefit from Brexit relocation. It concludes by looking at what the wider impact on the rest of the EU might be — negative as well as positive.
The referendum has happened and there has been a vote to leave the EU. But there is considerable uncertainty over how long the process will take and over what the eventual relationship between the UK and EU will be.
We believe that leaving will neither be quick nor dramatic in its effects. Rather, we expect a ‘long goodbye’ stretched out over two years or more. Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty provides for a two-year exit period once a member state decides to leave, but the UK looks unlikely to serve a formal decision any time soon.
We think the Article 50 notice is not likely to be served until late 2017 at the earliest.
As we move towards the busy 4th quarter trading period, this report highlights some of the major trends seen in European commercial property markets so far in 2016. The big event in the political sphere was undoubtedly the surprise result in the UK referendum but excluding the UK, the demand for real estate in Europe has remained strong.
Of the 35 largest non-UK office markets in Europe, prime office yields have continued to fall in 22 of them so far in 2016 with yields remaining stable. The pattern of office leasing across the European markets continues to reflect the economic situation: positive but slow growth with some marked differences from place to place reflecting offsets in the timing of cycles; all tempered with a degree of caution from the lead-up to, and result of, the EU referendum in the UK.
The increased attraction of prime property is linked to the policy adopted by the ECB over the past two years. We now have negative short-term policy rates and very low long-term government bond yields. This has pushed investors towards alternative “near bond-like” assets which offer some characteristics of fixed income and security. Prime property goes some way to fitting the description and steadily rising rents and falling vacancy have helped to make the case.
The majority of retail markets across Europe have seen positive retail sales volume growth so far in 2016 and the EU average growth rate has been a healthy 3.2% .
The industrial & logistics markets have also performed well so far in 2016 even in the UK, where logistics occupier demand was surprisingly strong amidst a general referendum-linked slowdown.
Although uncertainty around the impact of the referendum will weigh on parts of the UK market, continuing economic growth and an ongoing very low interest rate environment will continue to drive real occupier and investor demand over the rest of 2016 and into 2017 despite the plethora of elections and referenda still to come.