Dr Blake joined CBRE in 2012 from Oxford Economics where he was Director of Economic Analysis, focusing on commercial property, housing and retail markets, international cities and regional services, as well as global macroeconomic and financial sector analysis. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2008, Neil was a founding director of Business Strategies Limited, which became part of Experian in 2002.
Past projects include modelling international property returns for a leading agent; assessing the property market impact of a eurozone breakup; work for the Barker Review on the economic effects of restrictions on housing supply; the RICS City Office Model; and scenario analysis for commercial and residential space demand in Abu Dhabi.
Michael has worked in the property sector since 1985 and qualified as member of the RICS general practice division in 1990. He is also a member of the IPF, having completed their Advanced Education program in 2005. He became involved in research during the mid 90s and joined CBRE in 2001 to develop their EMEA research team. He now heads the EMEA Capital Markets team, which is responsible for analysing trends in capital flows, investment strategy and forecasting long-term trends in the real estate sector.
Richard holds postgraduate qualifications in Urban and Regional Planning, and Property Investment and has previously held research posts with Prudential Portfolio Managers and Royal Bank of Scotland. Richard joined CBRE in 2001, and in his present role he heads the Office and Industrial Markets team within EMEA Research. His role involves overseeing the analysis of these markets from occupier and investor perspectives, and initiating and carrying out research projects that support the existing business activities of the company and its clients. In addition to regular market commentary and publications, Richard also delivers frequent client briefings and conference presentations.
Ruth is a Director in the Economics, Investment and Forecasting team within CBRE Research and Consulting. Her role supports both the UK and EMEA businesses, as well as a wide range of external clients, and is primarily focused on producing forecasts of key European property markets.
Ruth is an experienced business economist with knowledge across a range of sectors. Before joining CBRE in 2014 she has worked at BNP Paribas Real Estate, Grosvenor and Alecta fund management. In her early career she worked for the Automobile Association and Post Office and spent 2 years working overseas in the Solomon Islands.
Natasha joined CBRE in 2006 as part of the UK research team. She then moved to take up a role as CRM Manager focussing on client strategy and planning for CBRE’s top UK clients. Natasha now works in the EMEA research team as an Associate Director. Her role includes analysing pan European and global trends within the retail market, production of a number of key CBRE retail initiatives including the “How Global is the Business of Retail?”, “Understanding Retail Destinations” and recently the suite of multichannel research, and supporting the EMEA Cross-border retail team in growing their business. She is also an active member of the Shopping Centre Practice team helping to grow CBRE’s knowledge and expertise in the business of shopping centres.
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Kareece Martin-Venner: Researcher
Kareece joined CBRE’s research team in 2014 as a researcher in the EMEA Economics, Investment and Forecasting team. Her role is to support the forecasting team with quarterly outputs, produce reports as well as involvement in various econometric modelling and forecasting projects.
Kareece studied Finance for her first degree at Durham University before going on to obtain a Masters in Economics from the University of St Andrews. Kareece enjoys travelling and languages and has worked and studied in Italy.
Kemi joined CBRE in 2014 as an Analyst in the EMEA Research team. As well as supporting a wide range of internal and external clients, her role also involves the quarterly production of Office, Industrial as well as Occupier Market View reports.
Working with the Chief Global Economist, she also undertakes econometric modelling for various real estate studies. A recent study involved modelling correlations between global gateway cities and investigating implications for investment strategy.
Kemi holds a degree in Real Estate Investment from Cass Business School.
Alison joined CBRE in May 2013 as a Data Analyst within the EMEA Research and Consulting. Managing and maintaining a Shopping Centre Database, she supports a wide range of internal and external clients to help build the awareness and insight into CBRE’s European business for shopping centres, as well as understand the business of our clients and competitors.
Alison is also an active member of the Shopping Centre Practice team.
The pressure of London’s housing need and the impact of its growth is being felt in those authorities making up what we call, the ‘London Belt’. The London Belt is formed of 47 Local Planning Authorities, which all share pressing housing needs, a connection to London in terms of its residents commuting to London, and one common constraint to significant growth – they contain Green Belt.
This report identifies the position of authorities within the London Belt, many of which are juggling out-of-date development plans, increased housing need, duty to cooperate pressures and potentially face the difficult decision of Green Belt release. It also looks at each authorities’ political context, and whether they have Community Infrastucture Levy and Neighbourhood Plans in progress.
CBRE has an experienced and dedicated Planning team with a track record of success in creating value through planning permissions and site allocations on major developments across the country.
The recent acquisitions of both Parkdean Resorts for £1.35bn and Park Holidays for £362m indicate major confidence in the UK Holiday Park market and the strengthening outlook for UK domestic holidays demand. CBRE provided vendor due diligence valuations for both operators’ sales process.
The value of leasehold due diligence to cover all risks and maximise opportunities at purchase is significant.
Debt outlook 2017 – Key themes are emerging in 2017 that will influence lending terms in the Leisure market. More choice, more uncertainty and more opportunity will require greater analysis to ensure success of deals.
Cinema box office in 2016 in the UK & Ireland reached £1.33bn to become the highest-grossing year ever.
Health and fitness – 2016 saw a high level of corporate activity in the sector. We look at trends and demand in 2017.
There has been a flurry of transactions across Specialist Markets in the second half of 2016, we summarise some highlights.
The report - ‘Top trends in facilities management – how society, demographics and technology are changing the world of FM’- is intended to help occupiers think through how they achieve their strategic goals, through their real estate and facilities.
With technology changing our world at unprecedented speed, many people
are feeling apprehensive about the future and questioning what it holds for
themselves, their children and the generations to come. Those operating in
the real estate sector are not immune from this profound sense of uncertainty.
As a business, CBRE is increasingly using data mapping to identify patterns that help us
– and our clients – to better understand what tomorrow might look like. More specifically,
our Master Planning team has identified a series of economic, demographic, societal
and technological trends which can give us useful pointers towards future real estate
For Q4 2016 originations, Senior CRE lending returns are forecast to be 3.4%pa on a gross basis and 3.1%pa on a risk-adjusted basis. This represents an increase of almost 40bps on Q3 returns.
For the second quarter in succession, we estimate that senior margins flat were over Q4. Thus, we estimate that over the whole of 2016, margins rose by c40bps at the aggregate all property level, with the bulk of that movement occurring in the final week of June
after the Brexit vote.
5yr swap rates rose 37bps over the fourth quarter, ending 2016 72bps lower than at the end of 2015. A further modest improvement in the forecast for capital growth resulted in a slight decline in Probability of Default and Expected Loss over Q4. The key measure for banks, Return on RWA (calculated here as a function of margin and fee alone), was flat. On an RoRWA basis, gross returns were 3.5%pa and risk-adjusted returns 2.9%pa, assuming Strong slotting treatment.
Senior CRE lending offers an extremely healthy premium of 2.6%pa to the risk-free rate, on a risk adjusted basis. Against corporate debt, the relative return offered by senior CRE debt held firm at 1.8%, remaining at a two year high.
Though not normally a topic covered in these MarketViews, due to the scarcity of data and
homogenous nature of deals, we have analysed the historic relationship between investment and development finance terms. Over the long-term it seems that development lending could offer superior risk-adjusted returns to investment lending. With many players currently excluded from this market – via Regulatory constraints in the case of traditional bank lenders or Mandate limitations in the case of newer lenders – the shortage of development finance
may be set to continue. This would be a missed opportunity for lenders, borrowers and the wider economy alike, arguably representing a significant market failure.