Dr Blake joined CBRE in 2012 from Oxford Economics where he was Director of Economic Analysis, focusing on commercial property, housing and retail markets, international cities and regional services, as well as global macroeconomic and financial sector analysis. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2008, Neil was a founding director of Business Strategies Limited, which became part of Experian in 2002.
Past projects include modelling international property returns for a leading agent; assessing the property market impact of a eurozone breakup; work for the Barker Review on the economic effects of restrictions on housing supply; the RICS City Office Model; and scenario analysis for commercial and residential space demand in Abu Dhabi.
Michael has worked in the property sector since 1985 and qualified as member of the RICS general practice division in 1990. He is also a member of the IPF, having completed their Advanced Education program in 2005. He became involved in research during the mid 90s and joined CBRE in 2001 to develop their EMEA research team. He now heads the EMEA Capital Markets team, which is responsible for analysing trends in capital flows, investment strategy and forecasting long-term trends in the real estate sector.
Richard holds postgraduate qualifications in Urban and Regional Planning, and Property Investment and has previously held research posts with Prudential Portfolio Managers and Royal Bank of Scotland. Richard joined CBRE in 2001, and in his present role he heads the Office and Industrial Markets team within EMEA Research. His role involves overseeing the analysis of these markets from occupier and investor perspectives, and initiating and carrying out research projects that support the existing business activities of the company and its clients. In addition to regular market commentary and publications, Richard also delivers frequent client briefings and conference presentations.
Ruth is a Director in the Economics, Investment and Forecasting team within CBRE Research and Consulting. Her role supports both the UK and EMEA businesses, as well as a wide range of external clients, and is primarily focused on producing forecasts of key European property markets.
Ruth is an experienced business economist with knowledge across a range of sectors. Before joining CBRE in 2014 she has worked at BNP Paribas Real Estate, Grosvenor and Alecta fund management. In her early career she worked for the Automobile Association and Post Office and spent 2 years working overseas in the Solomon Islands.
Natasha joined CBRE in 2006 as part of the UK research team. She then moved to take up a role as CRM Manager focussing on client strategy and planning for CBRE’s top UK clients. Natasha now works in the EMEA research team as an Associate Director. Her role includes analysing pan European and global trends within the retail market, production of a number of key CBRE retail initiatives including the “How Global is the Business of Retail?”, “Understanding Retail Destinations” and recently the suite of multichannel research, and supporting the EMEA Cross-border retail team in growing their business. She is also an active member of the Shopping Centre Practice team helping to grow CBRE’s knowledge and expertise in the business of shopping centres.
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Kareece Martin-Venner: Researcher
Kareece joined CBRE’s research team in 2014 as a researcher in the EMEA Economics, Investment and Forecasting team. Her role is to support the forecasting team with quarterly outputs, produce reports as well as involvement in various econometric modelling and forecasting projects.
Kareece studied Finance for her first degree at Durham University before going on to obtain a Masters in Economics from the University of St Andrews. Kareece enjoys travelling and languages and has worked and studied in Italy.
Kemi joined CBRE in 2014 as an Analyst in the EMEA Research team. As well as supporting a wide range of internal and external clients, her role also involves the quarterly production of Office, Industrial as well as Occupier Market View reports.
Working with the Chief Global Economist, she also undertakes econometric modelling for various real estate studies. A recent study involved modelling correlations between global gateway cities and investigating implications for investment strategy.
Kemi holds a degree in Real Estate Investment from Cass Business School.
Alison joined CBRE in May 2013 as a Data Analyst within the EMEA Research and Consulting. Managing and maintaining a Shopping Centre Database, she supports a wide range of internal and external clients to help build the awareness and insight into CBRE’s European business for shopping centres, as well as understand the business of our clients and competitors.
Alison is also an active member of the Shopping Centre Practice team.
In this fourth edition of CBRE’s Law in London report we consider how the challenges and opportunities facing London’s largest law firms are affecting real estate strategy.
This is underpinned and supported by our regular benchmark analysis of the CBRE Legal 100, which draws on data from four years' surveys.
The legal sector continues to experience significant change.
Cost reduction remains a major focus through strategies such as intensifying use of space and nearshoring. But increasingly law firms are focused on attracting and retaining the best talent. So a greater emphasis is placed on how space is used, and the look and feel of that space. We are seeing alternative workplace strategies and open play layouts becoming more widespread.
In the competitive London environment it will be the firms that can adapt that will survive.
The CEE Market Outlook 2016 analyses the results of 2015 in regards to investment, office, retail and industrial for Central and Eastern European countries and presents the forecast for 2016.
- Economic growth is the norm for almost all CEE countries, at a speed above that of Western Europe countries.
- The dominant cyclical factor is consumer spending, which is currently benefiting from a host of positive factors.
- Investment Volumes in CEE should be at minimum similar to those from 2015 (EUR 9.978 billion, except Russia).
- Historical high office demand is registered in almost all CEE countries, driven mostly by IT & outsourcing international occupiers.
- Buyont retail market, on the back of rise in private consumption, leading to tenants turnover increases and interest from investors in retail products.
- Even if industrial demand is reaching historically high numbers (in some cases up 65% compared to 10 year averages), there is limited speculative development.
- Hungary is a country that has grown under the radar for the past 12 – 18 months. With a number of indicators looking very promising – well past the region average –, we make a case for Hungary as the go-to-destination in 2016.
Our latest annual debt review provides comprehensive analysis of 2015’s trends and considers how and why 2016 may be different.
Our key conclusions are:
Last year, new lending doubled, rising to €127 billion based on a record €273 billion of CRE investment.
Lending margins were generally stable for bilateral lending and LTV levels stayed low, by historic standards.
Despite the rise in new debt issuance, the total value of European CRE debt in 2015 was only slightly higher than in the previous year, at €1.1 trillion, because new lending was offset by the retirement of existing debt.
NPL activity was robust. Sales were up 23% in 2015 to €85 billion.
Dry powder for loans and distressed assets is high and pressure is rising on European banks which have yet to address long-standing, non-core loan books, meaning the pace of deleveraging will continue.
Investors have become more cautious. This change in sentiment is a factor in a slowdown in 2016 investment activity and is likely to affect loan pricing.
Despite continuing globalization of the real estate industry and stronger cross-border interplay between the real estate and capital markets, the national markets are still dominated by national and regional characteristics
The rental market is gaining considerably in importance over ownership, due to affordability factors, as well as the more flexible lifestyle it offers, in particular for younger people
Both the importance of institutional investors and the size of the private letting market, in comparison with the state-controlled segment, vary considerably between countries and have strong influence on the availability of adequate numbers of housing units.
Owner - Occupation varies between 78 percent in Spain and 34.6 percent in Switzerland
Among the many financial market considerations being speculated upon in the wake of Brexit is the appetite for bank lending to commercial real estate. A fall in capital values and
consequent rise in LTVs on existing lending could push up capital requirements, making
historic lending less profitable and diminishing the availability of funds for future lending.
However, in analysing some of the more adverse anticipated market scenarios, we find that
any capital shortfall is likely to be minimal – a minute fraction of that facing the industry in the 2008/09 crisis. So, Bank lending to commercial real estate will not be significantly curtailed by capital constraints brought on by post-vote market jitters. Furthermore, recent action by the Bank of England to reduce the counter-cyclical capital requirement will in effect act to dampen the impact of rising RWAs on balance sheets. Of course, other factors may influence lending behaviour on the part of the banks, but restructuring in the UK lending market means that borrowers are far less exposed to one type of lender than was the case a decade ago.
BREXIT PUSHES SPECIALIST SECTORS CLOSER TO THE MAINSTREAM
We approach the end of the first month in our new world with the property market in focus during the initial uncertainties. Headlines about the stresses being experienced by parts of our Fund industry and the early share performance of many REITs suggest a significant shift in sentiment for the real estate market.
The specialist markets have not been entirely insulated from these effects but largely pricing is holding up, with transactions continuing, less volatility in the REITs, and Funds active in our areas. The Healthcare and Leisure markets could now continue and even accelerate their trajectory to the heart of real estate investment strategy.
We share here the activity and reactions around the specialist markets to date, look at what we have seen emerging, areas where there is less clarity and some possible trends as we head to calmer waters.