Dr Blake joined CBRE in 2012 from Oxford Economics where he was Director of Economic Analysis, focusing on commercial property, housing and retail markets, international cities and regional services, as well as global macroeconomic and financial sector analysis. Prior to joining Oxford Economics in 2008, Neil was a founding director of Business Strategies Limited, which became part of Experian in 2002.
Past projects include modelling international property returns for a leading agent; assessing the property market impact of a eurozone breakup; work for the Barker Review on the economic effects of restrictions on housing supply; the RICS City Office Model; and scenario analysis for commercial and residential space demand in Abu Dhabi.
Michael has worked in the property sector since 1985 and qualified as member of the RICS general practice division in 1990. He is also a member of the IPF, having completed their Advanced Education program in 2005. He became involved in research during the mid 90s and joined CBRE in 2001 to develop their EMEA research team. He now heads the EMEA Capital Markets team, which is responsible for analysing trends in capital flows, investment strategy and forecasting long-term trends in the real estate sector.
Richard holds postgraduate qualifications in Urban and Regional Planning, and Property Investment and has previously held research posts with Prudential Portfolio Managers and Royal Bank of Scotland. Richard joined CBRE in 2001, and in his present role he heads the Office and Industrial Markets team within EMEA Research. His role involves overseeing the analysis of these markets from occupier and investor perspectives, and initiating and carrying out research projects that support the existing business activities of the company and its clients. In addition to regular market commentary and publications, Richard also delivers frequent client briefings and conference presentations.
Ruth is a Director in the Economics, Investment and Forecasting team within CBRE Research and Consulting. Her role supports both the UK and EMEA businesses, as well as a wide range of external clients, and is primarily focused on producing forecasts of key European property markets.
Ruth is an experienced business economist with knowledge across a range of sectors. Before joining CBRE in 2014 she has worked at BNP Paribas Real Estate, Grosvenor and Alecta fund management. In her early career she worked for the Automobile Association and Post Office and spent 2 years working overseas in the Solomon Islands.
Natasha joined CBRE in 2006 as part of the UK research team. She then moved to take up a role as CRM Manager focussing on client strategy and planning for CBRE’s top UK clients. Natasha now works in the EMEA research team as an Associate Director. Her role includes analysing pan European and global trends within the retail market, production of a number of key CBRE retail initiatives including the “How Global is the Business of Retail?”, “Understanding Retail Destinations” and recently the suite of multichannel research, and supporting the EMEA Cross-border retail team in growing their business. She is also an active member of the Shopping Centre Practice team helping to grow CBRE’s knowledge and expertise in the business of shopping centres.
t: +44 207 182 3166 e:email@example.com
Kareece Martin-Venner: Researcher
Kareece joined CBRE’s research team in 2014 as a researcher in the EMEA Economics, Investment and Forecasting team. Her role is to support the forecasting team with quarterly outputs, produce reports as well as involvement in various econometric modelling and forecasting projects.
Kareece studied Finance for her first degree at Durham University before going on to obtain a Masters in Economics from the University of St Andrews. Kareece enjoys travelling and languages and has worked and studied in Italy.
Kemi joined CBRE in 2014 as an Analyst in the EMEA Research team. As well as supporting a wide range of internal and external clients, her role also involves the quarterly production of Office, Industrial as well as Occupier Market View reports.
Working with the Chief Global Economist, she also undertakes econometric modelling for various real estate studies. A recent study involved modelling correlations between global gateway cities and investigating implications for investment strategy.
Kemi holds a degree in Real Estate Investment from Cass Business School.
Alison joined CBRE in May 2013 as a Data Analyst within the EMEA Research and Consulting. Managing and maintaining a Shopping Centre Database, she supports a wide range of internal and external clients to help build the awareness and insight into CBRE’s European business for shopping centres, as well as understand the business of our clients and competitors.
Alison is also an active member of the Shopping Centre Practice team.
In this fourth edition of CBRE’s Law in London report we consider how the challenges and opportunities facing London’s largest law firms are affecting real estate strategy.
This is underpinned and supported by our regular benchmark analysis of the CBRE Legal 100, which draws on data from four years' surveys.
The legal sector continues to experience significant change.
Cost reduction remains a major focus through strategies such as intensifying use of space and nearshoring. But increasingly law firms are focused on attracting and retaining the best talent. So a greater emphasis is placed on how space is used, and the look and feel of that space. We are seeing alternative workplace strategies and open play layouts becoming more widespread.
In the competitive London environment it will be the firms that can adapt that will survive.
The CEE Market Outlook 2016 analyses the results of 2015 in regards to investment, office, retail and industrial for Central and Eastern European countries and presents the forecast for 2016.
- Economic growth is the norm for almost all CEE countries, at a speed above that of Western Europe countries.
- The dominant cyclical factor is consumer spending, which is currently benefiting from a host of positive factors.
- Investment Volumes in CEE should be at minimum similar to those from 2015 (EUR 9.978 billion, except Russia).
- Historical high office demand is registered in almost all CEE countries, driven mostly by IT & outsourcing international occupiers.
- Buyont retail market, on the back of rise in private consumption, leading to tenants turnover increases and interest from investors in retail products.
- Even if industrial demand is reaching historically high numbers (in some cases up 65% compared to 10 year averages), there is limited speculative development.
- Hungary is a country that has grown under the radar for the past 12 – 18 months. With a number of indicators looking very promising – well past the region average –, we make a case for Hungary as the go-to-destination in 2016.
Our latest annual debt review provides comprehensive analysis of 2015’s trends and considers how and why 2016 may be different.
Our key conclusions are:
Last year, new lending doubled, rising to €127 billion based on a record €273 billion of CRE investment.
Lending margins were generally stable for bilateral lending and LTV levels stayed low, by historic standards.
Despite the rise in new debt issuance, the total value of European CRE debt in 2015 was only slightly higher than in the previous year, at €1.1 trillion, because new lending was offset by the retirement of existing debt.
NPL activity was robust. Sales were up 23% in 2015 to €85 billion.
Dry powder for loans and distressed assets is high and pressure is rising on European banks which have yet to address long-standing, non-core loan books, meaning the pace of deleveraging will continue.
Investors have become more cautious. This change in sentiment is a factor in a slowdown in 2016 investment activity and is likely to affect loan pricing.
The property market is currently experiencing uncertainty in the run up to the referendum. In previous turbulent markets, yields in student housing have proved less volatile than other sectors. This is a good moment to consider how student accommodation could be affected by Brexit and how resilient it will be to such a change.
Since we produced our first report on the EU referendum in February, the bookmakers’ odds against a leave first drifted out from 9/4 (31%) to 9/2 (18.2%) but they have now firmed as the leave campaign has gained momentum and some bookmakers are now quoting 2/1 (33.3%).
The opinion polls are still neck and neck and the Stay campaign has serious concerns that the pro-stay majority in the younger age groups are far less likely to vote that the pro-leave older age groups.
With only a few exceptions, economic impact studies are continuing to warn of the detrimental impact of a Leave vote.
From a property standpoint, the sectors most at risk if there is a Leave vote and if it has a negative economic impact are financial services, legal and accountancy and the tech sector.
London is most at risk with Frankfurt and Paris and, to a lesser extent, Amsterdam and Dublin poised to gain from any financial service fall out and Berlin, Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam and Stockholm looking best placed to gain if the UK’s tech-sector takes a hit.
Almost as many of our clients expect a lose-lose outcome as do a lose-win scenario. This is because of worries that without the UK, the EU could be subject to further fragmentation, a more anti-competitive policy agenda or even another euro-crisis.
Since our last release of yields in early March, the sector has had to contend with the broader issues of the impending EU Referendum and the Government’s failure to exclude the multiple landlord from the 3% SDLT surcharge.
That said, Brexit appears to be having little or no effect on investment volumes with the overwhelming demand/supply imbalance in the housing sector outweighing concerns regarding a possible Euro exit.
The pattern of platform creation continues with the 3 way partnership for the East Village development pipeline and Elephant & Castle between Delancey, APG and Qatari Diar having completed in March.
UK institutions remained active with M&G, LaSalle and Hermes all securing further schemes over the quarter in London, Birmingham and Manchester.
Indeed, Birmingham seems to suddenly be flavour of the month with Rockspring/Atlas also forward funding Pershore Street.
Whilst we have kept our yields unchanged over the quarter, the outlook remains positive and we expect to see a trend towards forward funding deals to mitigate the SDLT increase.